The JB Management analysis section contains daily market reviews, in-depth looks at individual instruments and an economic calendar with forecasts for key macro indicators. The material is prepared by the company's in-house analysts; every publication carries the author's name and the date. The analysis is for information purposes only and does not constitute personal investment advice.
Filter by instrument and by type of material. Morning reviews are published before the European session opens; event commentary within an hour of the data release.
The manufacturing purchasing managers' index moved above 50 for the first time in six months. The DAX responded with a 0.8% gain and set a new weekly high. We check whether volumes confirm the move and what to expect into the US open.
The Asian session was quiet and Treasury yields barely moved. The key event of the day is the flash purchasing managers' indices for the eurozone and the US. We are watching GER40 at the top of its weekly range.
The rate decision was in line with expectations. The shift came in the wording on wage growth, and that is what moved the curve. A reminder that the text usually matters more than the number.
Sterling is holding near 1.32 on expectations that the rate will be left unchanged. We look at how the pair reacted to the last three meetings and which phrases in the accompanying statement could push it out of its range.
The third failed attempt in a month to settle above 1.17. We look at positioning from the CFTC data, the two-year yield differential and the levels options traders are watching ahead of the Fed meeting.
The data came in above forecast, yet the dollar weakened. The reason was a downward revision to the previous month, which outweighed the effect of the fresh figure.
The pair has returned to levels where currency interventions have taken place in the past. We compare officials' rhetoric with previous episodes and assess how likely a reversal is without action from the Bank of Japan.
The metal is trading within 1.5% of its all-time high as real yields fall and central bank buying continues. We assess which Fed rate scenario is already priced in and where the nearest technical levels lie.
The week in summary: US core CPI below expectations, European purchasing managers' indices back above 50, Brent reversing from its quarterly high. What matters for next week and which releases to watch.
The manufacturing purchasing managers' index moved above 50 for the first time in six months. The DAX responded with a 0.8% gain and set a new weekly high. We check whether volumes confirm the move and what to expect into the US open.
The Asian session was quiet and Treasury yields barely moved. The key event of the day is the flash purchasing managers' indices for the eurozone and the US. We are watching GER40 at the top of its weekly range.
The rate decision was in line with expectations. The shift came in the wording on wage growth, and that is what moved the curve. A reminder that the text usually matters more than the number.
Sterling is holding near 1.32 on expectations that the rate will be left unchanged. We look at how the pair reacted to the last three meetings and which phrases in the accompanying statement could push it out of its range.
The third failed attempt in a month to settle above 1.17. We look at positioning from the CFTC data, the two-year yield differential and the levels options traders are watching ahead of the Fed meeting.
The data came in above forecast, yet the dollar weakened. The reason was a downward revision to the previous month, which outweighed the effect of the fresh figure.
The pair has returned to levels where currency interventions have taken place in the past. We compare officials' rhetoric with previous episodes and assess how likely a reversal is without action from the Bank of Japan.
The metal is trading within 1.5% of its all-time high as real yields fall and central bank buying continues. We assess which Fed rate scenario is already priced in and where the nearest technical levels lie.
The week in summary: US core CPI below expectations, European purchasing managers' indices back above 50, Brent reversing from its quarterly high. What matters for next week and which releases to watch.
An interactive calendar with filters by country, currency, importance and period. Each event shows the release time, country, indicator, importance, previous value, forecast and actual value.
A brief explanation of each indicator and the typical market reaction. Expand the one you need.
The main measure of inflation. Most central banks target a level of around 2%. The core index, which excludes food and energy, is watched separately. A reading above forecast strengthens expectations of tighter policy and usually supports the currency.
The number of jobs added in the US non-farm sector over the month. It is released together with the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings, so the market assesses all three figures at once. A strong report usually strengthens the dollar and lifts yields; a weak one strengthens expectations of a rate cut and supports gold.
A survey of purchasing managers in manufacturing and services. A reading above 50 indicates expanding activity, below 50 a contraction. The preliminary (flash) estimates are released earlier and move the market more than the final ones. An unexpected drop below 50 usually weighs on the region's currency and stock indices.
The central bank's key decision and the accompanying statement. The rate change itself is usually priced in beforehand, so the reaction is driven by the wording on future plans and by the press conference. Rhetoric that is more hawkish than expected supports the currency and weighs on indices.
The total output of goods and services over the quarter. It is published in several estimates: advance, second and final, with the first estimate producing the strongest reaction. Growth above forecast generally strengthens the currency, although the market increasingly looks at the GDP deflator as a signal on inflation.
The change in retail turnover, a fast indicator of consumer demand, which accounts for the bulk of GDP in developed economies. The "control group" excluding cars and fuel is watched separately. Strong data supports the currency, but revisions to previous months matter too.
The share of the labour force that is unemployed. A lagging indicator, but one that forms part of the mandate of the Fed and other central banks, so it influences rate expectations. A rise in unemployment above forecast usually weakens the currency and increases demand for safe-haven assets.
The change in prices at the factory gate, a leading indicator of consumer inflation. Rising producer costs feed through to retail prices with a lag. The market reaction is usually weaker than to CPI, but an unexpected jump strengthens expectations of tight policy.
Trading hours including holidays, central bank policy rates, the quote archive and the spread archive.
Central European Time. The status is updated automatically and public holidays are taken into account.
Next holiday: Christmas Eve, 24 December.
Current rates and dates of the next meetings.
Historical data for all instruments. Change the period and the instrument in the top bar of the chart. Drawing tools, indicators and instrument comparison are available.
Actual average spreads recorded on the company's servers, not advertised minimums. Published monthly and kept for the last 24 months.
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